Have you ever seen a magician working a crowd, seeming to pull information out of thin air? They may be using a technique known as cold reading - and when done well, it can seem outright supernatural. Let's take a closer look at...
- Reading the Omens... or the Audience
- Shotgun Divination
- Behavioral Cues and an Educated Equine
- The Rainbow Ruse
- The Barnum-Forer Effect
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| Crystal balls are a common prop for fortune telling... (Anonymous) |
Reading the Omens... or the Audience
Whether by omens, runes, crystals or seeking answers from the dead, humans have looked for paranormal resolutions to earthly questions for millennia... and there have always been people willing to provide those answers for a price. You needn't look far to see it happening - fairground fortune tellers, celebrity psychics and even the humble horoscope all claim to offer a glimpse into the future.
The popularity of these practitioners comes from their seeming accuracy... but rather than having a direct line to the supernatural, they typically use psychological and observational techniques collectively known as cold reading to let people provide the answers to their own questions.
Shotgun Divination
One technique commonly seen in magic shows is known as shotgunning. The "psychic" begins by firing extremely open questions out into the audience - for example, they might ask if anyone knew an "Ed" that recently passed away, broadening it to Eddie or Edna if there are no takers. With an audience of hundreds or thousands, there's almost always going to be someone with a deceased family member with an Ed-like name.
They might also add that the person had suffered from a heart condition (which is an incredibly common cause of death.) To the audience member, it could seem that the psychic has not only identified their relative but somehow gleaned personal knowledge about their medical history... when in reality they're just playing the odds.
That's why the technique is called shotgunning - like firing shot into a flock of birds, you're bound to hit something. Once the psychic has "hit" they can make vague statements and let the audience fill in the gaps.
They could also watch for behavioral ticks - for example, someone tearing up might suggest an unexpected death that left no room for closure.
Behavioral Cues and an Educated Equine
Though we tend to think of ourselves as communicating with speech, humans give out a huge amount of information through our behavior and body language. A trained observer can exploit this to "read minds" but the basics can be picked up by just about anyone - even a horse can do it!
Towards the end of the Victorian era, a performing horse known as Clever Hans wowed crowds with a seeming ability to count and do simple arithmetic. Hans gave his answers by tapping his hoof the correct number of times - and his owner put on these shows without charging admittance.
Psychologist Oskar Pfungst studied the horse and eventually realized what Hans was up to. The crafty beast was watching his handler and the audience closely while tapping his hoof. As he approached the correct number of taps, indrawn breaths and other subconscious behavior from the audience told him when to stop!
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| If a horse can pick up behavioral cues, then so can a trained human observer... (Anonymous) |
The Rainbow Ruse
Another technique found in cold reading is called the rainbow ruse. It works by making a statement or description that subtly contradicts itself - and it can be made to fit almost anyone as a result.
That might not make a great deal of sense, so let's look at the following description: You can be strongly passionate in your beliefs, but are also willing to listen to the advice and opinions of others. Many people would agree that the description suited them and think no more of it... even though a more cynical reading would be "you are both stubborn and easily led."
The technique works because of confirmation bias - our tendency to favor information that fits into our current beliefs. You can observe this at work in many political discussions, with people brushing off the failings of their preferred candidate while fixating on the perceived misdeeds of their opposition!
The Barnum-Forer Effect
These techniques are bolstered by our tendency to believe that generic predictions and descriptions apply specifically to us. This is called subjective validation and drives the Barnum-Forer effect, named after psychologist Bertram and American showman (or conman) Phineas Taylor Barnum.
Cold-readers can use this effect to fake detailed personal knowledge of their audience. Saying something incredibly vague and generic (such as the previously mentioned example of a deceased relative having had heart problems - something that could apply to almost everyone in the developed world) can come across as having privileged medical knowledge - in essence, our ego does the work for the magician!
This technique is what makes horoscopes work. By presenting incredibly broad and unspecific statements that almost anyone can relate to, they can "seem" to fit any reader - and if you remove all references to star signs, you might be surprised at how well every single horoscope fits you!
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